The Leadgap guide
Read the event.
Understand the gap.
Leadgap compares changes in Polymarket event probabilities with related perpetual markets. Use it to investigate a divergence, then make your own trading decision.
01 · Find a signal
Choose a comparison window on Signals. Candidates shows signals that pass eligibility, timing and estimated-cost checks. Divergences shows supported comparisons below those thresholds. All includes every supported comparison.
Open a row for the full picture: the event question, Yes probability, and the reasoning behind the mapping. Save it to your watchlist or set an alert from there.
02 · Read the gap
The model multiplies the change in Yes probability by a signed sensitivity estimate — the implied move. It subtracts the observed perp return. What’s left is the gap.
A higher score reflects the residual, mapping confidence, movement, and liquidity. It is not a probability of success, and the separate timing estimate measures association at minute resolution, not causation. See the Model page for the full breakdown.
03 · Inspect the market
Open the related desk to compare its chart, event odds, order book, and funding. You’re trading a perpetual contract, not the event’s Yes or No shares.
Check the freshness stamp. Delayed or interrupted feeds show the last available values — model estimates and historical relationships can both be wrong.
04 · Connect and trade
Trading requires a connected wallet, a supported location, and Polymarket Perps access. The first connection may request a signature to create a trading session. Review market, direction, size, price, and leverage before submitting.
polymarket.com/perps?c=00cas6it&via=arshiaYour account’s available access and balances are determined by Polymarket. Signing in to Leadgap does not grant Perps access.
05 · Costs and risk
No Leadgap builder fee. Venue trading fees, funding, and liquidation charges may still apply.
This is not financial advice. Event odds can be wrong, liquidity can disappear, and leveraged positions can be liquidated. Treat every score and estimated liquidation price as an approximation.
06 · What Leadgap stores
Signed out, your watchlist and alert rules stay in this browser and never reach a server. Signed in, they live in your account so the research service can check alerts while Leadgap is closed, and only that account can read them.
Login is handled by Privy; Leadgap sees the account identifier it returns, plus any wallet you connect for trading. Usage counters are per-day totals of a fixed set of product events — which screens and actions get used — with no identifiers, addresses or question text attached.
Market data, odds and prices come from Polymarket. Referral links carry via=arshia so Polymarket can credit Leadgap; that is disclosed wherever the link appears.
Support Leadgap
Using our Polymarket referral link may earn Leadgap referral rewards when you meet Polymarket’s eligibility requirements.
https://polymarket.com/?via=arshia
Polymarket referral terms